Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47ba…e85b crypto 174 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-3%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate69%120W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day110.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -10.6% -19.1% 69% 37% -15.3%
≤30d 174 -10.6% -19.1% 69% 37% -15.3%
≤90d 174 -10.6% -19.1% 69% 37% -15.3%
all 174 -10.6% -19.1% 69% 37% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 37% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 16% -23.4%
15% -33.9% 7% -30.8%
20% -40.4% 2% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses120 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day110.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records