Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47b8…6e4c sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-5%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$389
14 days−$389
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$145
crypto 11% −$71
other 10% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 54% -24.5%
≤30d 28 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 50% -35.5%
≤90d 81 -27.4% -34.3% 38% 38% -34.2%
all 114 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 45% -10.6%
10% -27.8% 39% -19.2%
15% -34.8% 31% -27.0%
20% -41.2% 24% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 55
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage145d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $31 +$17 +54%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$45 +442%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $15 +$8 +50%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $32 +$31 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $14 −$6 -39%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $62 +$21 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$35 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$27 +46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $83 −$26 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$57 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $41 +$9 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $282 −$235 -83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$9 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $40 +$25 +63%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $106 −$103 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $104 −$101 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $109 +$224 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $78 +$31 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $25 +$19 +74%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Apr 19 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei Apr 19 $20 +$6 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Pre Apr 18 $25 +$8 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Banta Apr 18 $53 +$38 +71%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 18 $82 −$82 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 18 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $10 +$8 +84%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $35 +$20 +58%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $103 −$3 -3%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $10 +$6 +58%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $48 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $31 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $23 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 66¢ $15 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $10 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 58¢ $25 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 80¢ $4 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 23¢ $0 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 22¢ $3 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $52 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 32h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $83 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $62 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $88 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $57 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 34¢ $57 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $83 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records