Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47b6…c65f other 169 markets active 2d ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized +$7 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%55W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$4
other 33% −$90
politics 9% +$117
sports 8% −$10
crypto 8% −$23
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.5% -0.9% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 7 +5.7% -4.3% 43% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 38% -38.0%
all 164 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 31% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -10.1%
10% -31.0% 29% -18.7%
15% -37.7% 26% -26.6%
20% -43.8% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses55 / 109
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 169
History coverage717d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $70 $55 −$15 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 13 $81 −$14 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $108 −$26 -24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 24 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Apr 06 $227 −$119 -52%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Mar 10 $1 +$8 +817%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 10 $177 +$122 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 202 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $2 +$9 +428%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Feb 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Umbra Gateway win the ETHDenver BUIDLathon? Feb 23 $0 +$19 +9330%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Panthers Dec 29 $2 +$1 +35%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 28 $1 $0 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $1 +$1 +59%
Pacers vs. Heat Dec 28 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $2 +$1 +39%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3) Dec 26 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 41¢ $3 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $70 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 55¢ $67 4d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $48 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 38¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 32¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 4d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $79 16d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $80 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 24d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY Yes 43¢ $1 42d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 42d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $108 72d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $108 72d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $227 98d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $78 109d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 110d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 202 BUY Yes 27¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 SELL Yes 74¢ $11 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.00 · official $55.00 (match) · 886 history records