Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47b6…520a sports 386 markets active 17h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$127 (+8%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%205W / 178L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$74
other 19% +$31
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 66% +16.9%
≤30d 110 +22.8% +11.1% 61% 61% +3.7%
≤90d 378 +9.5% -0.9% 54% 54% -2.3%
all 383 +8.5% -1.8% 54% 54% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 54% -3.5%
10% -11.2% 53% -12.7%
15% -19.8% 50% -21.1%
20% -27.6% 46% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses205 / 178
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)383 / 386
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 51¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $2 +$3 +116%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $9 +$6 +69%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $11 +$11 +93%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $9 +$15 +180%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $1 +$4 +291%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 27 $4 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 27 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Saint-Etienne vs. Nice end in a draw? May 27 $1 +$4 +250%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 27 $5 +$4 +81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $9 +$8 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $3 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $2 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $2 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 27h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $2 46h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 47h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $2 47h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 56¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 56¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 62¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 58¢ $3 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.19 · official $37.13 (match) · 934 history records