Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47b2…4eb3 sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$477 (-4%) realized −$482 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$321
other 27% +$49
crypto 8% −$95
tech 5% −$234
world 5% −$13
economics 4% +$18
finance 1% +$183
politics 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.1% +16.8% 80% 80% +14.8%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 62% 62% -2.0%
≤90d 65 -47.4% -52.4% 29% 25% -63.5%
all 144 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 27% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 27% -13.1%
10% +1.7% 25% -21.4%
15% -8.1% 23% -29.0%
20% -17.1% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 72
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions18
Markets (closed)144 / 162
History coverage258d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $49 $59 +$10 (+21%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 69¢ 68¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $52 $41 −$11 (-21%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 65¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 +$5 +35%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 +$7 +51%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$15 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$12 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -99%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $27 +$22 +83%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $29 −$29 -99%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $18 −$17 -98%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $24 +$25 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $24 −$24 -98%
Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $32 +$18 +58%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Apr 23 $26 −$19 -73%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $31 −$14 -46%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $27 +$22 +83%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $30 +$19 +62%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 11? Apr 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 10? Apr 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 12? Apr 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 23 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Apr 23 $162 −$162 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Apr 23 $116 −$116 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Apr 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026? Apr 23 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Apr 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? Apr 23 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Apr 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Apr 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 11? Apr 23 $59 −$59 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Apr 23 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Apr 23 $82 −$71 -86%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Apr 23 $176 −$176 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $35 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 65¢ $40 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $25 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $56 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 63¢ $25 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $16 13h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 85¢ $11 13h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 69¢ $3 13h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 69¢ $7 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $15 13h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 22¢ $2 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 97¢ $15 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $13 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $22 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $15 26h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 68¢ $25 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $13 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $22 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $15 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.92 · official $605.93 (match) · 488 history records