Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47b2…476b other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$5
other 21% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% −$2
weather 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 0% -8.6%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 56% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -9.0%
10% -21.6% 2% -17.7%
15% -29.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage464d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $47 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $5 $0 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $9 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Fernando Alonso finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $2 $0 +23%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Shane Lowry win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 13? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $53 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $53 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $8 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $40 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $21 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $26 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $42 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $50 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $48 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 24d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.33 · official $52.33 (match) · 134 history records