Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x47b1…0381 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$554 (+11%) realized +$554 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$561
world 42% −$6
politics 7% $0
other 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +97.5% +78.7% 50% 6% +0.9%
all 18 +97.5% +78.7% 50% 6% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.7% 6% +0.9%
10% +61.6% 6% -8.8%
15% +46.0% 6% -17.6%
20% +31.6% 6% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +205% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$70 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$554
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage80d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 16 $294 $0 +0%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 17 $498 +$7 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? May 16 $499 −$1 -0%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 16 $49 +$981 +1983%
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) May 15 $1 −$1 -46%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) May 13 $465 +$24 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $463 $0 -0%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) May 05 $468 −$467 -100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 05 $468 $0 +0%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $416 +$9 +2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $414 +$1 +0%
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-1.5) Apr 03 $185 +$18 +10%
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? Apr 01 $187 −$2 -1%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Apr 01 $158 +$2 +1%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Mar 30 $184 −$6 -3%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $28 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $294 6m
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $294 1h
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) BUY Viking FK 98¢ $498 30d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $488 30d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 30d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $499 31d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $25 31d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Auckland FC $24 31d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) SELL Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $1 31d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $1 31d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $15 31d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 31d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 31d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 31d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY Kahrabaa Ismailia FC 95¢ $465 34d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $463 34d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $463 34d
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Shenhua FC 93¢ $468 42d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $468 42d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $468 42d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 98¢ $318 55d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 98¢ $98 55d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $416 55d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $223 55d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $191 55d
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-1.5) BUY Ceará SC 91¢ $185 75d
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $90 75d
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 75d
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $187 76d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $158 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records