Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x47ae…ee94 world 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,862 (+5%) realized +$17,101 · open −$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate77%230W / 69L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,095per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7,719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days+$114
14 days+$391
30 days+$7,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$11,595
finance 13% +$2,106
politics 11% −$4,238
other 9% −$283
tech 3% +$330
crypto 2% +$3,758
sports 1% +$3
economics 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 151 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 36% -5.6%
≤90d 270 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 31% -7.0%
all 299 +10.3% -0.2% 77% 31% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 31% -6.7%
10% -9.8% 16% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.5% 11% -23.8%
20% -26.5% 8% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,119) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$364 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$7,719
Realized+$17,101
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses230 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions23
Markets (closed)299 / 315
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$1,095
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $1,806 $1,905 +$99 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,160 $1,256 +$96 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $777 $904 +$127 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 46¢ 40¢ $714 $628 −$87 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 85¢ 87¢ $430 $441 +$11 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 82¢ 89¢ $369 $399 +$30 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $448 $395 −$53 (-12%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 13¢ 6¢ $692 $319 −$373 (-54%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 99¢ $263 $308 +$45 (+17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 60¢ 98¢ $149 $245 +$96 (+65%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 26¢ 21¢ $208 $168 −$40 (-19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $153 $146 −$7 (-5%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $182 $137 −$44 (-24%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 86¢ $123 $113 −$10 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 24¢ $105 $41 −$64 (-61%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 94¢ 96¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $90 $21 −$69 (-76%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 15 $4,181 −$4,192 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with vinegar? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will "Ford v. Ferrari" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Grinch" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netfl Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,303 +$263 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $469 +$108 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9,812 +$2,067 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $873 +$21 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,394 +$168 +12%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $151 −$39 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $711 +$149 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,522 +$930 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $491 +$126 +26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $1,465 −$460 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $194 +$613 +316%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $235 +$18 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $315 +$20 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $856 +$45 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $297 +$94 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,719 +$7 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $718 +$65 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,101 +$371 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $154 +$63 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $255 +$320 +125%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,163 +$198 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $525 −$109 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,058 −$852 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $190 +$7 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,451 +$102 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $176 +$117 +66%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $478 +$11 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $567 +$20 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $107 +$24 +22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $393 −$303 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $302 +$163 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $47 +$7 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $172 +$62 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $1,146 −$78 -7%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $466 +$15 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $330 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $4,460 −$4,152 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $59 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $90 50m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $58 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $6 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $74 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $4 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $20 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $28 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 98¢ $25 3h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 86¢ $234 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,698 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $89 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,087 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $559 5h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 85¢ $426 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $870 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,651 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,656 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $46 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $9 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $453 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $307 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $338 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $974 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 98¢ $132 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,719.13 · official $7,807.70 · 3500 history records