trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $49 | $49 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 49¢ | 56¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Dec 09 | $11 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | Jun 27 | $6 | $0 | -7% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Jun 02 | $5 | −$2 | -40% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | May 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 16 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? | Apr 15 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Apr 14 | $10 | +$4 | +40% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 30 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? | Mar 20 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Mar 20 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 43% | 14% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 43% | 14% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 43% | 14% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 61% | 9% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 9% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 4% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -32.7% |