Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47ad…b5cb weather 62 markets active 8h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$119 (-6%) realized −$127 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$24
other 21% −$112
finance 5% −$3
crypto 4% +$17
politics 3% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.4% -24.3% 21% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -22.2% -29.6% 18% 5% -16.7%
≤90d 60 -22.2% -29.6% 18% 5% -16.7%
all 60 -22.2% -29.6% 18% 5% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 5% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 5% -24.7%
15% -42.5% 5% -31.9%
20% -48.1% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage9d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? No 92¢ 95¢ $92 $95 +$4 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$21 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$13 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -61%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $104 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 10 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $94 −$2 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -68%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $97 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -68%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $98 −$74 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $98 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $46 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $46 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $1 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 5¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $34 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $4 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $27 33h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 34h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 6¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 6¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 7¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 6¢ $0 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 6¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.50 · official $189.50 (match) · 253 history records