Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47ac…d28f sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$87
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$44
sports 27% +$52
politics 8% −$8
finance 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -15.0% -23.1% 75% 50% -32.3%
≤90d 18 -35.1% -41.3% 50% 39% -27.6%
all 24 +26.2% +14.2% 62% 54% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 54% -11.5%
10% +3.2% 29% -20.0%
15% -6.7% 29% -27.7%
20% -15.9% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage133d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $60 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $96 −$96 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $108 +$9 +9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$4 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $56 +$10 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 18 $66 +$12 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $49 +$7 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $55 +$5 +9%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 09 $30 +$40 +133%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $37 +$4 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 25 $24 +$11 +45%
Red Wings vs. Predators Mar 08 $12 +$11 +92%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $4 +$25 +669%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 25 $15 +$30 +203%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 22 $27 +$31 +113%
Pacers vs. Nets Feb 20 $14 +$22 +163%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 09 $12 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $96 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 92¢ $108 18d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $56 25d
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $30 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 85¢ $66 44d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 54d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $12 61d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 66d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $49 68d
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders BUY Maple Leafs 31¢ $30 73d
Flyers vs. Islanders BUY Flyers 43¢ $30 79d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $20 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 26¢ $18 85d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $37 88d
Nets vs. Kings BUY Kings 69¢ $24 90d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Clippers 47¢ $23 95d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Pistons 53¢ $12 104d
Red Wings vs. Predators BUY Red Wings 52¢ $12 110d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 116d
Nuggets vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 33¢ $15 118d
Pacers vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 47¢ $27 121d
Pacers vs. Nets BUY Pacers 38¢ $14 129d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 51¢ $11 131d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Heat 84¢ $12 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.82 · official $59.82 (match) · 51 history records