Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47a5…c5c3 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-2%) realized −$114 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate47%47W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$24
world 36% −$10
sports 11% −$85
politics 9% −$13
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$6
culture 0% −$30
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 30% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 37 -1.8% -11.2% 32% 5% -9.6%
all 99 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 14% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 14% -10.9%
10% -20.9% 12% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 8% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses47 / 52
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage547d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $157 +$4 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $103 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $84 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $162 −$8 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $88 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $188 −$2 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $431 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $182 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $191 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $86 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $51 −$3 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $88 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $192 +$3 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $81 +$2 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $607 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,216 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $312 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $22 −$1 -6%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $2 +$1 +30%
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31? Mar 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $21 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 25 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $77 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $69 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $74 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $60 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $76 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $84 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $84 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $84 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $84 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $14 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.96 · official $78.20 (match) · 374 history records