Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47a1…f15b other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 24% −$24
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$6
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage137d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $380 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $289 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $389 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $471 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $613 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 57m
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 10h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 12h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 15h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 17h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 22h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 23h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 28h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 31h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 34h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 35h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 37h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 37h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 43h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 44h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records