Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x479f…beb7 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$58 (+20%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$118
other 22% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.1% +14.1% 44% 44% +8.2%
≤30d 9 +26.1% +14.1% 44% 44% +8.2%
≤90d 9 +26.1% +14.1% 44% 44% +8.2%
all 9 +26.1% +14.1% 44% 44% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 44% +8.2%
10% +3.2% 44% -2.1%
15% -6.8% 44% -11.6%
20% -15.9% 44% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$35 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $36 +$149 +415%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $17 +$21 +124%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $74 −$73 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $63 −$61 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $38 +$50 +134%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $185 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $17 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $36 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $74 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $33 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $63 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 20h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $5 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $38 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $19 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records