Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x479e…91c3 sports 580 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,882 (+0%) realized +$18,277 · open −$2,395
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate68%396W / 183L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,601per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$22,224est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$41,224
other 12% +$11,311
finance 1% −$11,099
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.6% -38.1% 50% 50% -37.0%
≤30d 98 -11.5% -19.9% 59% 56% -20.1%
≤90d 571 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 62% -11.0%
all 579 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 62% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 62% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 47% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 31% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$5,079) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,939 vs −$4,406 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$18,277
Unrealized−$2,395
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses396 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$22,224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)579 / 580
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$5,601
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Stefanos Tsitsipas 63¢ 3¢ $2,500 $105 −$2,395 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $2,914 +$542 +19%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $2,548 −$2,500 -98%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $2,534 −$2,500 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,595 +$1,797 +50%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $2,522 +$1,049 +42%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $6,456 −$3,796 -59%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1,310 −$1,300 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,177 +$217 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $827 +$349 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $3,479 +$1,393 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2,520 +$901 +36%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1,711 −$1,700 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $1,817 −$88 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $1,162 +$637 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,544 −$2,500 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $2,328 +$1,136 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,635 −$3,600 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $3,113 +$492 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,064 −$5,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $2,542 +$3,140 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $6,029 −$5,970 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4,862 +$1,173 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $4,498 −$4,461 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $2,218 +$779 +35%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $3,614 −$3,597 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $5,079 −$5,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $6,878 +$4,079 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $5,960 +$934 +16%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $4,216 +$784 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4,327 +$668 +15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $3,326 +$1,135 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $12,936 −$9,599 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5,034 −$2,297 -46%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $5,097 −$5,000 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $7,458 +$2,542 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $18,232 −$7,229 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $22,096 −$5,793 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $7,645 +$3,279 +43%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) May 30 $3,841 −$3,829 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5 May 30 $3,943 +$858 +22%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9,301 +$689 +7%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,996 −$2,977 -99%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 May 30 $3,355 −$3,350 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $5,072 +$4,543 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $10,093 +$4,400 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $18,418 +$1,562 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 63¢ $2,528 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey SELL Giles Hussey 100¢ $3,456 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 84¢ $2,914 2h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $2,548 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 54¢ $2,534 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,595 2d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $2,522 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 61¢ $3,841 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 32¢ $1,307 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $2,615 3d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $1,310 11d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 100¢ $1,394 11d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 84¢ $1,177 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $827 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2,027 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 11d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 71¢ $3,479 12d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth SELL Jiri Lehecka 100¢ $3,421 12d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY Jiri Lehecka 73¢ $2,520 12d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $2,535 12d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 79¢ $1,711 15d
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard SELL Tommy Paul 50¢ $1,729 15d
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $1,817 15d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 64¢ $1,162 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $2,544 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4.5 99¢ $3,464 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 64¢ $524 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 64¢ $62 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 64¢ $50 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4.5 64¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.75 · official $104.75 (match) · 3500 history records