Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x479d…d469 politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$7,019 (+7%) realized +$1,039 · open +$5,980
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,504per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$47,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$372
14 days+$684
30 days+$688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$5,348
other 39% +$659
finance 15% +$341
world 3% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 100% 11% -7.8%
≤90d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 100% 11% -7.8%
all 9 +29.2% +16.9% 100% 11% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.9% 11% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 11% -16.6%
15% -4.5% 11% -24.7%
20% -13.9% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$47,953
Realized+$1,039
Unrealized+$5,980
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5,504
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $22,208 $27,397 +$5,189 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $8,487 $8,535 +$48 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5,637 $6,064 +$426 (+8%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 90¢ $4,364 $4,388 +$25 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 86¢ $589 $658 +$69 (+12%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 46¢ 95¢ $227 $465 +$238 (+105%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $455 $442 −$13 (-3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 17 $459 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 15 $15,350 +$340 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $4,290 +$28 +1%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 11 $1,630 +$55 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $271 +$27 +10%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $2,964 +$51 +2%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $10,932 +$179 +2%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $2 +$4 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $4,383 37m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $8,524 37m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12,919 38m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $3,123 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3,106 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,877 6h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2,755 6h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $134 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,092 7h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,181 10h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 84¢ $84 13h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 28h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $179 31h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $180 31h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 97¢ $200 35h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 97¢ $264 35h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $97 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $105 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $717 46h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $18 46h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 90¢ $58 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $562 46h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 37¢ $37 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 33¢ $24 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 32¢ $14 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $23 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,134 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,953.21 · official $47,953.45 (match) · 146 history records