Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x479b…45c2 other 136 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$5
politics 22% −$6
world 16% −$4
sports 10% +$1
economics 8% −$1
finance 5% −$9
crypto 4% −$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 12 +331.8% +290.6% 25% 17% -8.1%
≤90d 96 +35.3% +22.4% 4% 2% -9.6%
all 134 +24.9% +13.0% 3% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 1% -9.7%
10% +2.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -7.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -16.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×7.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 130
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage92d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $18 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $31 +$4 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $162 +$9 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $364 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $264 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 26 $1 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $1 $0 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $26 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 28¢ $1 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 72¢ $20 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? SELL No 95¢ $28 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 94¢ $28 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 59¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 59¢ $12 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 57¢ $6 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $19 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $8 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 74¢ $22 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 58¢ $17 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 18¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.10 · official $0.00 · 1419 history records