Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4798…1920 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$740 (+0%) realized +$735 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,483per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$19
14 days−$112
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$173
politics 40% −$106
sports 7% +$960
tech 3% −$7
economics 3% −$2
world 2% −$4
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 47 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 9% -9.7%
≤90d 125 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 6% -9.2%
all 125 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -9.2%
10% -20.1% 6% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 6% -25.8%
20% -34.9% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$6 · ×20.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,834
Realized+$735
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,483
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,176 $1,180 +$4 (+0%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $399 $399 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $254 $255 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,045 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,077 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,998 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,771 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,005 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,763 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $6,597 −$9 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,295 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $68 +$64 +93%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,246 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,088 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,923 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $647 +$3 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $650 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,595 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $3,922 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,720 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,592 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,650 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $67 +$120 +180%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $68 +$52 +76%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $2,747 −$4 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $61 +$79 +129%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3,135 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,722 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,726 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $399 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $366 15h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $406 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $407 22h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 22h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 26h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $350 41h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $350 44h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $435 47h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $435 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $381 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $381 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $394 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $394 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $255 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $684 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $685 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $632 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $633 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $606 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $607 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $654 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $655 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $723 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $724 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $705 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $706 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $530 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $531 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,833.63 · official $1,833.63 (match) · 404 history records