Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x4795…0fb0 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,923 (+2%) realized +$1,924 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 61L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$536est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,734
7 days−$12,303
14 days−$9,510
30 days+$8,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$6,061
other 34% +$6,918
world 13% −$11,752
crypto 10% −$542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -62.3% -65.9% 12% 12% -59.6%
≤30d 25 -16.5% -24.4% 36% 36% +2.8%
≤90d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% -11.9%
all 98 -18.5% -26.2% 38% 38% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -8.9%
10% -33.3% 37% -17.6%
15% -39.7% 37% -25.6%
20% -45.6% 37% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$516) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,278 vs −$764 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,924
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$536
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage235d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,989 +$5,746 +192%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12,960 −$11,752 -91%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,248 −$2,248 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $998 −$998 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $528 −$528 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7,708 +$5,831 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $509 +$779 +153%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $480 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $1,545 −$1,145 -74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $2,429 −$2,429 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 11 $379 −$379 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $205 +$406 +198%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $583 +$450 +77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $650 +$806 +124%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18,845 +$13,840 +73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,873 +$4,117 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $614 −$614 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $505 +$264 +52%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 12 $10,264 −$10,177 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $153 +$210 +137%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 03 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 30 $511 +$403 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 30 $186 −$186 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $773 −$773 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $250 +$252 +101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $492 −$15 -3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $250 +$242 +97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $250 +$295 +118%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 15 $250 +$202 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 12 $465 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 12 $21 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 12 $457 +$422 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,652 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,083 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $2,989 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $504 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2,989 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $697 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,208 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $9,972 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $998 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $451 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $21 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,797 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 52¢ $304 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $57 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 52¢ $203 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,898 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $4,640 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $16 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,552 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $100 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $44 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $48.75 (match) · 312 history records