Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4791…02b4 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$658 (-14%) realized −$658 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%15W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$143
14 days−$3
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$201
crypto 34% −$1,098
sports 32% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -48.1% -53.0% 18% 18% -28.3%
≤30d 42 -41.2% -46.8% 17% 17% -30.4%
≤90d 96 -30.3% -36.9% 16% 16% -27.6%
all 96 -30.3% -36.9% 16% 16% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 16% -27.6%
10% -43.0% 16% -34.5%
15% -48.5% 16% -40.9%
20% -53.5% 16% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$44 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 81
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage57d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$31 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $77 +$125 +164%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$216 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$69 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$58 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$85 +166%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$90 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$327 +307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$36 +283%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 06 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 06 $45 −$44 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$4 -15%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $35 −$34 -97%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 24 $187 −$176 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 24 $106 −$35 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $114 −$108 -95%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $108 −$106 -97%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $118 +$270 +229%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 15 $78 −$76 -97%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $60 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $214 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records