Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x478c…d24e
crypto · 210 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses93 / 108
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)201 / 210
History coverage57d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$10
14 days+$35
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +127%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$4 +325%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$6 +550%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$4 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $18 +$7 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $13 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$71
crypto 27% −$25
finance 23% −$86
sports 11% +$24
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 29¢ $2 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 54¢ $2 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 36% -7.4%
≤30d 181 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 201 -1.1% -10.6% 46% 44% -11.1%
all 201 -1.1% -10.6% 46% 44% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 44% -11.1%
10% -19.1% 44% -19.6%
15% -26.9% 40% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.67 · official $21.43 · 566 history records