Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x478a…d6c7 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-5%) realized −$95 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$61
sports 18% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 56% -16.5%
≤30d 9 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 56% -16.5%
≤90d 9 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 56% -16.5%
all 9 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 56% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 56% -16.5%
10% -25.4% 56% -24.5%
15% -32.6% 56% -31.8%
20% -39.2% 44% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$75 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 100¢ $67 $110 +$43 (+64%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $128 −$126 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $95 +$64 +67%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$57 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$30 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$35 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$61 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $34 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $57 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $71 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $68 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $84 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $72 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $68 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.49 · official $314.49 (match) · 22 history records