Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4784…3856 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-8%) realized −$21 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$36
sports 20% −$25
other 4% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 48% -19.4%
≤30d 25 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 48% -19.4%
≤90d 25 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 48% -19.4%
all 25 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 48% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 48% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 36% -27.1%
15% -37.5% 16% -34.1%
20% -43.6% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Doosan Bears 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$18 -92%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 +$23 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.03 · official $28.03 (match) · 65 history records