trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $6 | −$1 | -15% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $14 | +$3 | +18% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 03 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 18 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? | Apr 18 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -52% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | Apr 18 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 12 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 11 | $12 | −$10 | -83% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $1 | $0 | +41% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 26 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -22.6% | -29.9% | 50% | 50% | -5.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 44% | 44% | -11.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -30.8% | -37.4% | 40% | 33% | -18.7% |
| all | 20 | -36.1% | -42.2% | 35% | 30% | -33.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -42.2% | 30% | -33.2% |
| 10% | -47.7% | 15% | -39.6% |
| 15% | -52.8% | 5% | -45.4% |
| 20% | -57.4% | 0% | -50.8% |