Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4783…355d weather 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%118W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$17
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 74 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 120 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×104.02 per $1 lost it wins $104.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses118 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage115d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $451 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 10 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $455 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 4 Jun 04 $448 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 04 $456 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $429 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $419 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $299 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $551 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $549 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $549 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $552 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $547 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $548 7d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $451 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $41 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $245 9d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $196 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $86 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $99 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $270 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $68 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $274 11d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $84 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $123 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $73 12d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $9 12d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $322 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.23 · official $429.23 (match) · 251 history records