Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x4781…f6c5 sports 103 markets active 5h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$705 (-6%) realized −$788 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$187
14 days−$255
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$705
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 45% -25.2%
≤30d 71 +6.3% -3.8% 49% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 102 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 45% -15.7%
all 102 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 45% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -15.7%
10% -20.2% 45% -23.7%
15% -27.9% 45% -31.1%
20% -35.0% 45% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$99 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 55
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage47d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Joblife 58¢ 100¢ $115 $198 +$83 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $116 +$68 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 20 $117 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $89 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $24 +$17 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $119 −$118 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $116 +$85 +73%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $117 +$113 +97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $116 +$81 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $116 −$115 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $117 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $117 +$92 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $117 +$96 +83%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 +$93 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $116 +$66 +57%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $119 +$84 +70%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 −$115 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $116 +$80 +69%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $117 +$109 +93%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $238 −$235 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $81 +$100 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $203 +$174 +86%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $203 +$174 +86%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 09 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 09 $122 −$120 -99%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $202 +$112 +56%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $202 +$135 +67%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $121 +$65 +54%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $324 −$320 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $152 +$134 +88%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 07 $202 +$137 +67%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $203 −$9 -4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $56 −$55 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $51 +$149 +291%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $202 +$132 +65%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 05 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $253 +$150 +60%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 58¢ $116 5h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 62¢ $116 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $117 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $89 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $119 3d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 57¢ $116 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 59¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 50¢ $117 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 58¢ $116 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $116 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 49¢ $37 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $117 6d
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 55¢ $117 7d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $117 7d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $116 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 8d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $117 8d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Galions 58¢ $119 10d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $116 10d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 48¢ $117 10d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 55¢ $117 10d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 58¢ $116 11d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $117 11d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $117 11d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 64¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY KOLESIE 44¢ $81 12d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 12d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $122 12d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $101 13d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 98¢ $377 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.18 · official $198.18 (match) · 167 history records