Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
47 0x477f…6c45 sports 274 markets active 1d ago coverage 105d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$93,170 (+11%) realized +$92,580 · open +$590
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%125W / 147L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,048per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$5,187est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$31,159
world 9% +$450
other 8% −$12,066
crypto 2% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 36% -21.5%
≤30d 169 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 33% -14.3%
≤90d 241 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 33% -21.7%
all 272 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 33% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 33% -14.4%
10% -17.9% 31% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 29% -30.1%
20% -33.1% 25% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$808 vs −$980 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2,070
Realized+$92,580
Unrealized+$590
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses125 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$5,187
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 274
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$3,048
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,120 $1,170 +$50 (+4%)
Will New Zealand win? Yes 36¢ 90¢ $360 $900 +$540 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $929 −$929 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $6 +$40 +614%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $1,391 −$1,391 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $6,391 −$6,345 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $3,036 +$31 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $685 +$7 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $812 +$10 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $18,629 +$3,254 +18%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 25 $375 −$375 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $6 +$10 +178%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $758 +$578 +76%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $520 −$520 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $430 −$430 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$507 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $220 +$280 +127%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $580 +$420 +72%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $215 −$215 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $550 +$450 +82%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $540 +$1,460 +270%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$19 +186%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $690 −$690 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $920 +$1,080 +117%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $270 +$230 +85%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $225 +$275 +122%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $176 −$175 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $320 −$320 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $260 +$240 +92%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $280 −$140 -50%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Jun 23 $200 +$800 +400%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $530 +$470 +89%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $677 +$350 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $320 +$1,680 +525%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $273 −$273 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $126 +$295 +233%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $500 +$500 +100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $115 +$80 +70%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 23 $270 −$241 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $22 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $14 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $8 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $425 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $42 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $14 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $46 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $36 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $109 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $192 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $7 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $0 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $6 28h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $253 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $55 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $55 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $4 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $785 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $2 31h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 55¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,070.00 · official $2,090.00 (match) · 3500 history records