Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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47 0x477e…7d74 crypto 1509 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$739 (-2%) realized −$740 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%1135W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$38
14 days−$67
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$243
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +3.3% -6.6% 80% 80% -6.2%
≤30d 1223 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 74% -11.4%
≤90d 1509 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 73% -10.2%
all 1509 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 73% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 73% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 51% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 24% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$740
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1135 / 374
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1509 / 1509
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 84¢ 86¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.96 · official $8.05 · 3500 history records