Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x477c…fe04 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-2%) realized −$191 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%62W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$123
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,112
sports 28% +$1,000
crypto 1% −$81
world 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +9.0% -1.4% 37% 26% -9.2%
≤30d 132 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 30% -11.7%
≤90d 167 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 32% -11.8%
all 167 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 32% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -20.2%
15% -26.8% 23% -27.9%
20% -34.0% 21% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$31 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses62 / 105
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions10
Markets (closed)167 / 177
History coverage38d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $99 $118 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $95 $90 −$5 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $90 $80 −$9 (-11%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 50¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 49¢ 49¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $12 $15 +$4 (+33%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$8 +25%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -23%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $123 +$62 +50%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $36 +$20 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $127 −$9 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 −$39 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $62 +$31 +50%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $111 +$9 +8%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $6 +$44 +785%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $154 +$100 +65%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $79 −$61 -77%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $8 +$42 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $138 +$72 +52%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $197 +$253 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$11 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 33m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 41m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 41m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 47m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 50m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 50m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 53m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 54m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 58m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 58m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 59m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 59m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.59 · official $608.59 (match) · 1001 history records