Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x477a…2d8e crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 277d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,924 (-9%) realized −$17,846 · open −$4,078
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%107W / 150L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,021per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 278d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 28% −$27,159
crypto 20% +$10,125
world 15% +$2,071
other 13% −$4,174
politics 10% −$1,088
sports 7% −$2,818
economics 3% −$2,770
finance 3% +$466
culture 1% −$1,831
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -76.9% -79.1% 16% 14% -74.9%
≤30d 78 -70.6% -73.4% 17% 15% -66.7%
≤90d 100 -41.3% -46.9% 23% 21% -52.9%
all 257 +23.0% +11.3% 42% 33% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.3% 33% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 27% -36.3%
15% -9.1% 22% -42.4%
20% -18.0% 19% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$698) neutral
Persistence
early +86% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$439 vs −$698 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$5,127
Realized−$17,846
Unrealized−$4,078
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses107 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions34
Markets (closed)257 / 243
History coverage278d ⚠
Avg bet$1,021
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? No 74¢ 83¢ $740 $830 +$90 (+12%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 38¢ 48¢ $648 $816 +$168 (+26%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $657 $657 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $525 $531 +$6 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 24¢ 28¢ $348 $399 +$51 (+15%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $4,285 $243 −$4,042 (-94%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $206 $208 +$2 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $240 $204 −$36 (-15%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 55¢ 82¢ $135 $201 +$67 (+50%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 57¢ 78¢ $84 $115 +$31 (+37%)
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $60 $102 +$42 (+70%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 72¢ 87¢ $83 $100 +$17 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $84 $99 +$14 (+17%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $154 $91 −$63 (-41%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No 65¢ 24¢ $197 $72 −$125 (-63%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 40¢ 35¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $61 $69 +$8 (+14%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 10¢ 5¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 62¢ 42¢ $62 $42 −$20 (-31%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 22¢ 46¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+103%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+21%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-27%)
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? No 75¢ 91¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $23 −$11 (-32%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $249 $20 −$230 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 22 $96 −$84 -87%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15? Jun 22 $565 −$554 -98%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Jun 22 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? Jun 22 $328 −$346 -105%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Jun 22 $970 −$986 -102%
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor? Jun 22 $213 −$213 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1,844 −$1,844 -100%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Jun 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26? Jun 22 $1,434 −$1,434 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jun 22 $443 −$443 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10? Jun 22 $72 −$45 -62%
Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first? Jun 22 $1,669 −$1,669 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $2,806 −$2,806 -100%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jun 22 $310 −$310 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Zverev Jun 22 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March? Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 −$96 -18793%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Jun 22 $673 −$673 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27? Jun 22 $184 −$139 -76%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 22 $377 −$354 -94%
Discord IPO in 2025? Jun 22 $229 −$229 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31? Jun 22 $413 −$410 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Jun 22 $191 −$191 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Jun 22 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 22 $279 −$149 -53%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jun 22 $2,130 −$2,130 -100%
New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30? Jun 22 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 22 $3,318 −$3,310 -100%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 22 $1,483 −$1,478 -100%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? Jun 22 $88 −$84 -96%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 22 $675 −$7,198 -1066%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 22 $467 −$467 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conferenc Jun 22 $2,358 −$2,358 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Fonseca vs. Atmane Jun 22 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Stripe IPO in 2025? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $755 +$345 +46%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $645 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $103 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 48¢ $353 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? BUY Yes 71¢ $284 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $755 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $87 28h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $30 28h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $508 28h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $56 31h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $26 31h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $25 34h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $645 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $540 45h
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a success BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $211 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,127.22 · official $5,134.22 (match) · 3500 history records