Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4777…b548 crypto 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (252 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$238 (+23%) realized +$239 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%169W / 118L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day252.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (252 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 +12.2% +1.6% 59% 46% -5.9%
≤30d 287 +12.2% +1.6% 59% 46% -5.9%
≤90d 287 +12.2% +1.6% 59% 46% -5.9%
all 287 +12.2% +1.6% 59% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 46% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 27% -14.9%
15% -17.0% 22% -23.1%
20% -25.2% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses169 / 118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)287 / 289
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day252.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 87¢ 32¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 69¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 74¢ 68¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 73¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$18 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $4.94 (match) · 662 history records