trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? | No | 55¢ | 60¢ | $111 | $119 | +$8 (+8%) |
| GTA VI released before November 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | No | 70¢ | 55¢ | $11 | $9 | −$2 (-21%) |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $50 | +$50 | +100% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? | May 16 | $40 | +$5 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 50% | 50% | +19.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 50% | 50% | +19.1% |
| all | 4 | +3.2% | -6.6% | 50% | 50% | +19.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.6% | 50% | +19.1% |
| 10% | -15.6% | 25% | +7.7% |
| 15% | -23.7% | 25% | -2.7% |
| 20% | -31.2% | 25% | -12.3% |