Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4773…2289 crypto 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20,023 (-3%) realized −$20,023 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate80%167W / 41L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,955per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$628est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3,163
sports 20% +$2,919
crypto 16% +$95
other 8% −$4,933
politics 5% −$7,379
finance 2% +$559
economics 1% +$378
tech 0% +$55
culture 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.4% -3.8% 78% 11% -8.0%
≤30d 55 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 13% -12.9%
≤90d 190 -3.1% -12.3% 80% 14% -10.3%
all 208 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 14% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 14% -10.3%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 4% -26.7%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,793) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$945 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized−$20,023
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses167 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$628
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2,955
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $694 +$21 +3%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,133 +$21 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $815 +$24 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $1,926 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $225 +$4 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,173 +$128 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,180 −$94 -8%
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $72 +$35 +49%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $103 −$21 -20%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $15 +$37 +252%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $192 −$93 -48%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $764 −$666 -87%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $743 +$22 +3%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $413 +$17 +4%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $1,777 +$187 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $976 +$87 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $487 +$46 +9%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $400 +$40 +10%
Libema Open, Qualification: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Lin Zhu Jun 06 $176 +$2 +1%
Libema Open, Qualification: Anouck Vrancken-Peeters vs Anouk Koeverman Jun 06 $394 +$7 +2%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 05 $17 $0 +2%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $256 +$74 +29%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $230 +$21 +9%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $489 +$55 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $265 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $192 +$36 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,747 −$1,565 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $1,635 +$96 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,040 +$58 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,509 +$66 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,461 +$63 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $437 −$5 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $1,301 +$145 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $2,093 +$193 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1,016 +$105 +10%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $78 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,947 −$313 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1,017 +$8 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $986 +$9 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $1,037 +$20 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4,390 +$73 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $935 +$23 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $391 −$178 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $500 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $162 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $32 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,155 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1,133 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $839 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $295 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $39 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 97¢ $243 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $239 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $881 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $844 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 98¢ $228 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $193 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $23 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,128 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $114 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $370 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $643 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,045 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $1,044 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $61 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $47 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $974 31h
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $108 32h
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $72 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $715.60 · official $715.60 (match) · 2768 history records