Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4771…8663
crypto · 346 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$138 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses205 / 140
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)345 / 346
History coverage46d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage HEROIC Academy 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $0 $0 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 26 $1 $0 -50%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2 −$1 -50%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $2 +$1 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 23 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europ May 22 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 22 $1 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $2 $0 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 20 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri May 20 $6 −$3 -56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $6 −$1 -17%
ITF Takasaki: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofya Lansere May 19 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $3 $0 -1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $0 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 18 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$123
crypto 24% −$30
other 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 53¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 53¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 73¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 71¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $3 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $45 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 45h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 56¢ $4 46h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $5 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 58¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 88¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 15d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo SELL Alliance 99¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo BUY Alliance 96¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.0% -2.2% 70% 70% +8.3%
≤30d 85 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 34% -32.0%
≤90d 345 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 42% -12.3%
all 345 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 42% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 42% -12.3%
10% -25.0% 30% -20.7%
15% -32.3% 22% -28.4%
20% -38.9% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $10.56 (match) · 835 history records