Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x476d…0c42 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,114 (+10%) realized +$12,527 · open +$2,587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%84W / 72L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2,274est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,541
7 days+$2,470
14 days+$5,327
30 days+$13,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15,966
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.1% -18.7% 42% 42% -4.6%
≤30d 90 +14.8% +3.8% 54% 53% +4.0%
≤90d 156 +11.6% +1.0% 54% 53% -1.0%
all 156 +11.6% +1.0% 54% 53% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 53% -1.0%
10% -8.7% 53% -10.4%
15% -17.5% 51% -19.1%
20% -25.6% 49% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$924 vs −$892 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$10,307
Realized+$12,527
Unrealized+$2,587
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses84 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,274
Open positions8
Markets (closed)156 / 164
History coverage51d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 94¢ $3,941 $7,409 +$3,468 (+88%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Las Vegas Aces 47¢ 44¢ $984 $932 −$52 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 22¢ $1,971 $831 −$1,140 (-58%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 54¢ $335 $358 +$23 (+7%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Under 45¢ 87¢ $154 $299 +$144 (+93%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ 90¢ $98 $228 +$130 (+132%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $138 $149 +$11 (+8%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,220 +$1,335 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$445 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $500 −$493 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,447 −$3,393 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,500 +$1,779 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6,000 +$13,589 +226%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $127 +$128 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7,819 −$7,819 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4,151 +$4,364 +105%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $1,795 +$1,813 +101%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $426 +$448 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $517 −$517 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $822 −$822 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 Jun 14 $365 +$451 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,000 +$1,941 +97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $520 +$446 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 12 $409 −$409 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $512 −$512 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $365 −$365 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $542 +$448 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 11 $860 +$1,036 +120%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $334 −$334 -100%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $411 −$411 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $917 −$917 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 10 $572 −$572 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $1,356 +$1,484 +109%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 10 $464 +$451 +97%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 09 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 09 $366 −$366 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 09 $1,503 −$1,503 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 09 $1,800 +$1,818 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $386 +$440 +114%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 07 $476 +$444 +93%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 159.5 Jun 07 $405 +$443 +109%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $336 −$336 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 06 $136 +$149 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $225 +$443 +197%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $920 −$103 -11%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5) Jun 04 $742 +$812 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $632 −$632 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 170.5 Jun 04 $955 −$955 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $407 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $424 7h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $1,000 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $390 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $500 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $407 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2,000 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2,000 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $1,447 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $2,000 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2,000 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2,000 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2,000 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $340 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $500 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1,000 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $127 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $157 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2,000 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $151 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2,000 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $1,000 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $795 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $1,000 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 48¢ $426 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,306.62 · official $10,306.62 (match) · 486 history records