Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x476b…8a58
sports · 743 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,049 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,050 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$290
Realized−$6,050
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses402 / 549
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions11
Markets (closed)951 / 743
Avg bet$27
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 951 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,055
7 days−$5,974
14 days−$5,946
30 days−$6,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ 48¢ $41 $35 −$7 (-16%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 55¢ 54¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Weibo Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
League of Legends: Team Vitality vs. Natus Vincere Natus Vincere 30¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner G2 Esports 34¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) Aurora Gaming 39¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Hanwha Life Esports 59¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Top Esports Top Esports 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Shifters 75¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. OKSavingsBank BRION DN Freecs 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) BNK FEARX 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs JD Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 3 Group S AG Super Play 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Weibo Gaming 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
League of Legends: Team Vitality vs. Natus Vincere Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 12 $207 −$238 -115%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Top Esports Jun 12 $15 −$17 -115%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$9 -80%
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs JD Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Sta Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 12 $6 −$50 -813%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$15 -159%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs KuaiShow Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Verdant vs The Otter Side (BO1) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Senshi Esports Club (BO3) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Cloud9 (BO1) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
League of Legends: Team WE vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Team WE Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 −$9 -9211%
LoL: Los Ratones vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. Hanwha Life Esports Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Jun 12 $97 −$113 -117%
LoL: Los Ratones vs Forsaken Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
League of Legends: Dplus KIA vs. BNK FEARX Jun 12 $16 −$154 -970%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FURIA (BO3) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EM Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Veni Vidi Vici vs Galions (BO1) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
League of Legends: EDward Gaming vs. JD Gaming Jun 12 $12 −$47 -386%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 12 $10 −$21 -207%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO7) - King Pro Leagu Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gentle Mates vs Odivelas Sports Club (BO1) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$12 -121%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Honor of Kings: UU Gamers vs Mighty Tiger Gaming (BO5) - KPL Growth Le Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Los Heretics vs LUA Gaming (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$12
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 67¢ $7 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $11 15m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $7 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 59¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 67¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 67¢ $7 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $12 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $30 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 46¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 45¢ $14 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $5 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $3 1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 4h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 49¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $8 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $7 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $8 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 45¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 -78.7% -80.7% 11% 10% -85.8%
≤30d 503 -41.5% -47.0% 31% 25% -48.5%
≤90d 951 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 34% -28.8%
all 951 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 34% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 34% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 25% -35.7%
15% -41.4% 19% -41.9%
20% -47.1% 12% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.78 · official $289.78 (match) · 3500 history records