Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4769…6dd9 politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$24
politics 40% −$21
sports 6% +$104
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 131 +4.3% -5.6% 10% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.6% 8% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 6% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×13.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)131 / 135
History coverage122d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $78 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $318 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $306 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $285 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $333 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $243 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $319 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $305 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 5h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 5h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $42 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 8d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 19d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.98 · official $164.98 (match) · 389 history records