Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4768…f198 sports 1310 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-3%) realized −$82 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%596W / 688L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$46
other 9% −$21
crypto 4% −$6
world 2% −$4
finance 1% −$2
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +8.7% -1.6% 28% 28% -28.7%
≤30d 664 -3.8% -13.0% 47% 47% -11.7%
≤90d 1261 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 45% -12.1%
all 1284 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -12.0%
10% -21.5% 44% -20.4%
15% -29.1% 42% -28.1%
20% -36.1% 39% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses596 / 688
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1284 / 1310
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Jun 15 $2 +$1 +22%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Kamilla Rakhimova vs. Jaqueline Cristian: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +180%
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +48%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex Jun 15 $2 −$2 -75%
Daniel Michalski vs. Benjamin Hassan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +158%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 15 $1 $0 +73%
Lilian Marmousez vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Karen Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 +173%
Tomasz Berkieta vs. Sandro Kopp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +52%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +86%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $0 $0 +101%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Gloucestershire Jun 15 $0 $0 +76%
Zizou Bergs vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Keys vs. Bucsa: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Sekulic vs. Krueger: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Julia Grabher vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -27%
Sebastian Baez vs. Roman Andres Burruchaga: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Hailey Baptiste vs. Xiyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Choinski vs. Herbert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Philip Sekulic vs. Mitchell Krueger: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$4 +146%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 +$4 +140%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2 +$2 +119%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q May 30 $4 +$3 +76%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins May 30 $3 +$3 +124%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $3 +$3 +109%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 29 $3 +$2 +86%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $5 +$2 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 +$1 +29%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 6m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6m
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 11m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 59m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 2018 history records