Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4766…560b world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$2
other 10% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 2% −$2
weather 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 27% 0% -9.2%
all 23 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage487d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Titans draft a Quarterback? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $11 $0 -1%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 05 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 04 $9 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $29 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $28 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $7 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $29 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $20 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $9 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $32 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records