Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4766…5a03 crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171,028 (+528%) realized +$171,030 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate42%71W / 99L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day239.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -44.2% -49.5% 16% 8% -26.9%
≤30d 170 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 170 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 21% -9.6%
all 170 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 21% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 9% -18.3%
15% -31.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$171,030
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses71 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 156
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$208
Trades / day239.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 63¢ 80¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 26¢ 20¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $173 −$73 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $413 −$53 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $101 −$21 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $546 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $536 −$56 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $340 −$40 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $197 +$43 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $104 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $116 +$24 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $572 +$68 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $602 −$102 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $722 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $242 −$42 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.98 · official $25.70 · 3500 history records