Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4765…ca11 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$1,127 (-56%) realized −$1,144 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1,016
other 15% −$102
crypto 12% +$117
finance 8% −$162
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-74.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +86.4% +68.7% 40% 40% +44.3%
≤30d 5 +86.4% +68.7% 40% 40% +44.3%
≤90d 5 +86.4% +68.7% 40% 40% +44.3%
all 36 -71.7% -74.4% 6% 6% -75.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.4% 6% -75.3%
10% -76.9% 3% -77.6%
15% -79.1% 3% -79.8%
20% -81.2% 3% -81.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$38 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$1,144
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage152d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 22? Down 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$146 +712%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $77 +$15 +20%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $355 −$355 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $60 −$60 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21? Jan 21 $35 −$35 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 20 $27 −$27 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 18 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18? Jan 15 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $80 −$80 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $300 −$30 -10%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 50¢ $167 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $93 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $77 3d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 106d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 110d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 135d
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 135d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 137d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 137d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 137d
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 140d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 141d
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 141d
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 141d
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.11 · official $280.11 (match) · 75 history records