Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4761…b19c crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+7%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 33% -0.8%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 33% -0.8%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 33% -0.8%
all 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 33% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 33% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 33% -10.3%
15% -26.3% 33% -19.0%
20% -33.5% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $128 −$27 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $127 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $57 +$50 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records