Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4761…88c6 crypto 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day225.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$333
sports 4% +$167
other 4% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 40% -13.7%
≤30d 284 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 40% -13.7%
≤90d 284 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 40% -13.7%
all 284 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 40% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 35% -21.9%
15% -36.7% 30% -29.5%
20% -42.9% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 163
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day225.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$44 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$63 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$6 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 +$73 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$13 +240%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$7 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $46 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $61 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $106 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $62 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $23 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $61 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $79 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 857 history records