Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4761…4eae crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 896d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$70 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate49%55W / 57L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$5
crypto 22% +$43
world 17% +$9
other 16% +$22
economics 10% +$1
sports 2% +$4
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 112 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.0%
10% -19.6% 1% -17.7%
15% -27.4% 1% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

896d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses55 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage896d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $212 $213 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $359 +$16 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $208 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 30 $208 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 20 $199 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $199 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Mar 27 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $197 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $188 $0 +0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $97 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Mar 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Mar 01 $187 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026? Mar 01 $9 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $196 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $196 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 09 $170 +$1 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.4m? Feb 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $195 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 29 $37 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 16 $155 $0 -0%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 16 $14 $0 -0%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meet Jan 16 $126 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 10 $194 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 03 $194 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Dec 15 $193 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $152 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 03 $310 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 24-30? Dec 02 $190 +$1 +1%
Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election Nov 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Nov 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 26 $174 +$1 +1%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Nov 15 $188 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 23m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 25m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 25m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 25m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 25m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 25m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 27m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 31m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 33m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 37m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 37m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 37m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 45m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 46m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 50m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 51m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $157 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $180 2d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 3d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 3d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.87 · official $215.87 (match) · 397 history records