Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4760…91cd sports 426 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized −$98 · open +$121
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate73%309W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days+$90
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$367
world 28% +$74
sports 13% −$42
crypto 11% +$22
tech 10% +$292
other 4% −$68
politics 3% +$69
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$5
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 86% 71% +3.7%
≤30d 40 -1.9% -11.2% 75% 52% -8.1%
≤90d 261 -6.2% -15.1% 71% 42% -10.7%
all 421 -3.2% -12.4% 73% 48% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 48% -10.3%
10% -20.8% 24% -18.9%
15% -28.5% 14% -26.8%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$651
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses309 / 112
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)421 / 426
History coverage155d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 72¢ 82¢ $300 $341 +$41 (+14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $155 $213 +$58 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 86¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+37%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 25 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $111 +$49 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $150 +$14 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$11 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $251 +$18 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $200 +$40 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $111 −$30 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $161 +$21 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $50 +$12 +24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe May 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $20 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $88 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $160 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $96 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 43¢ $16 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $30 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $30 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $30 17d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 17d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 17d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 17d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 17d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 17d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 17d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 17d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.27 · official $651.27 (match) · 1040 history records