Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4760…9899
weather · 248 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$89 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$97 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses77 / 163
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)240 / 248
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$68
14 days−$58
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 35¢ 43¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+23%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 8? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 9? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 1? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$30 +193%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$15 +285%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$41 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$38 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$48 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$45 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $13 +$27 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$8 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$22 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$15 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 61% +$64
crypto 20% +$16
other 9% +$30
sports 8% −$11
politics 2% −$23
finance 1% −$15
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 17h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 35¢ $11 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 22h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -23.1% -30.4% 22% 22% -19.7%
≤30d 233 -8.1% -16.9% 32% 32% -5.9%
≤90d 240 -7.9% -16.7% 32% 32% -6.4%
all 240 -7.9% -16.7% 32% 32% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 32% -6.4%
10% -24.6% 32% -15.4%
15% -31.9% 30% -23.6%
20% -38.6% 28% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.28 · official $124.29 · 604 history records