Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x475f…97c6 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,017 (+36%) realized +$2,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate82%42W / 9L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$1,995
other 34% +$7
crypto 10% +$6
finance 9% +$4
world 4% +$3
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 51 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 12% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% +23.6%
10% -17.1% 8% +11.8%
15% -25.1% 6% +1.0%
20% -32.4% 4% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$2 · ×30.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×160.5 per $1 lost it wins $160.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$2,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses42 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage226d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $141 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $138 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 01 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $134 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 12 $130 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $130 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$60 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $40? Apr 06 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 31 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $30? Mar 31 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over 5,550 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $30 $0 +1%
Hawks vs. Thunder Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 08 $141 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Mar 08 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 5? Mar 07 $125 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $165? Mar 06 $75 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 26 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Latvia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Feb 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Feb 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Feb 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 09 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 09 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $30 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 03 $1 $0 +30%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $10 +$6 +59%
Nets vs. Magic Dec 08 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 37h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 43h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $130 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 24d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 37d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $130 44d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $120 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 53d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 56d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 58d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 62d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$60 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $99 67d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 72d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 75d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 81d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 95d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $30? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.07 · official $142.07 (match) · 137 history records