Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

47 0x475f…82d7 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown85%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$76

7 days+$64

14 days+$54

30 days+$54

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+12.3%	+1.6%	50%	50%	+5.0%
≤30d	22	+5.3%	-4.8%	55%	55%	+1.4%
≤90d	22	+5.3%	-4.8%	55%	55%	+1.4%
all	22	+5.3%	-4.8%	55%	55%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	55%	+1.4%
10%	-13.9%	36%	-8.3%
15%	-22.2%	23%	-17.2%
20%	-29.8%	9%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage9d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown85%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$90	+$13	+14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Belgium to score first vs. New Zea	Jun 27	$20	+$9	+44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$90	+$64	+71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	Jun 25	$14	−$1	-7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$9	+$4	+50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$40	+$6	+14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$39	−$1	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 23	$4	−$3	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 23	$10	+$3	+28%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06	Jun 23	$8	+$28	+350%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$9	$0	-6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$7	+$1	+21%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$4	−$3	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$4	$0	-3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$12	−$12	-97%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$9	+$3	+38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$7	+$3	+34%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6	+$1	+15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$103	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Belgium to score first vs. New Zea	SELL	99¢	$29	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	39¢	$9	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	87¢	$90	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$123	4h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? AND Will Spain win on 2026	BUY	31¢	$11	5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Belgium to score first vs. New Zea	BUY	68¢	$20	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	75¢	$31	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	54¢	$90	6h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? AND Côte d'Ivoire to score first v	BUY	31¢	$13	36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	SELL	50¢	$13	36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	BUY	52¢	$14	37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$9	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$46	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	98¢	$46	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$40	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	70¢	$38	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	71¢	$39	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	31¢	$9	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	9¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$4	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$13	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06	SELL	99¢	$36	4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06	BUY	21¢	$8	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	42¢	$8	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$9	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	82¢	$7	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records