trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 38% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 23 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 43% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 16 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 15 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $54 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $124 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $42 | −$1 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $51 | +$4 | +8% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 01 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jun 23 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Jun 23 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 22 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | May 23 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | May 23 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 21 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect | May 20 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | May 19 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | May 18 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | May 16 | $28 | $0 | -2% |
| Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | May 15 | $27 | $0 | +0% |