Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x475b…02b4 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$764 (-4%) realized −$764 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$4,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,709
sports 45% −$2,342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+81.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +100.3% +81.2% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 18 +100.3% +81.2% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 18 +100.3% +81.2% 33% 33% -14.5%
all 18 +100.3% +81.2% 33% 33% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +81.2% 33% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here +63.9% 33% -22.7%
15% +48.0% 33% -30.2%
20% +33.5% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +197% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$775 vs −$440 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,980
Realized−$764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $1,300 $1,390 +$90 (+7%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 64¢ $1,300 $1,290 −$10 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,180 $1,170 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 56¢ $1,200 $1,130 −$70 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $660 +$591 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,454 −$798 -55%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3,195 −$1,963 -61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $177 +$823 +464%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $109 +$1,891 +1735%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $61 −$59 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $32 −$31 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $62 −$60 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $305 +$329 +108%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $225 +$775 +344%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 +$241 +119%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,140 −$1,551 -38%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $92 −$90 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $133 −$130 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Fr BUY 4¢ $200 49m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $1,314 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $1,214 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,314 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,195 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 17¢ $200 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egyp BUY 23¢ $300 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will France win on BUY 14¢ $300 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 11¢ $100 8h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 4¢ $50 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $660 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $657 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,454 16h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $686 17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,160 17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $546 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,020 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 3¢ $59 26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 26h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $109 27h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 10¢ $103 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 28¢ $511 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 12¢ $103 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 7¢ $103 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 17¢ $102 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,979.60 · official $6,101.17 · 66 history records